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Consoleation: Pre-NPD—April 2013 projection comparison (versus Michael Pachter)

Peter Skerritt's picture

Nintendo Wii U Deluxe Image

In advance of this afternoon's release of NPD retail video game sales data for April, I wanted to compare my range projections with those of Michael Pachter from Wedbush Securities:

  • We both agree that the Xbox 360 will be the best-selling hardware platform for the month. Mr. Pachter's projection of 205,000 units is squarely in the range of 190-215K that I projected.

  • Mr. Pachter believes that the Nintendo 3DS moved 185,000 units for the month, which is considerably higher than my range of 140-165K. I'll be very interested to see actuals here; perhaps I'm not giving the platform enough momentum given residual sales of March games.

  • As for the Sony PlayStation 3, Mr. Pachter projects 165,000 units sold. That is within my projected range of 155-180K. If this verifies, it will be the second straight month where 3DS beat PS3 and will be worth considering for trend analysis and projections moving forward.

  • Mr. Pachter projects Wii sales to be at 75,000 units. I did not put a number on Wii or legacy DS units for the month, but projected them to be 4th and 5th place respectively. Based on Mr. Pachter's numbers, this sounds like we agree. 

  • The Wii U moved 55,000 units in April, according to Mr. Pachter. This is at the low end of my 50-75K range. My instinct tells me that the raw number could be a shade higher, but I can see where the lower projection could verify. 

  • Finally, Mr. Pachter projects the Vita to have moved 30,000 units, which is below my projected range of 35-60K.

I'll be very curious to see 3DS sales data. I think that it's a good sign if I'm underselling the handheld as that could signal strengthening for the device well in advance of more significant software releases later this year. It's also notable that the 3DS will likely be the only platform to show any kind of YOY sales gain, which is also a good sign.

(Thanks to GameSpot and CNET for sharing Mr. Pachter's projections.)

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